Title：Who committed the Black Death crime in 1347-1353?

-A case from UCOS (Unsolved Crime & Open Case Squad)

Speaker: Professor Howell Tong

作者简介：

汤家豪（Howell Tong），电子科技大学特聘讲席教授，清华大学杰出访问教授，伦敦政经经济学院荣休教授，挪威科学与文学院外籍院士。1972年毕业于英国曼彻斯特大学, 获博士学位。他是香港中文大学统计系创始人，曾任英国肯特大学数学学院主任，伦敦政治经济学院统计系讲座教授，香港大学统计与精算系讲座教授，香港大学研究院创院院长和副校长。当选为国际统计学会会士，数理统计学会会士及精算学会荣誉会士。汤家豪教授是“非线性时间序列分析”的重要开创者之一。他提出的门限自回归模型是非线性时间序列分析的经典模型之一，所著的《Non-Linear Time Series: A Dynamical System Approach》专著是非线性时间序列分析的重要参考文献。2000年获中国国家自然科学二奖；2002年获香港大学最高奖“杰出成就奖”；2007年获英国皇家统计学会“佳氏银奖(Guy Medal in Silver)”，成为首位获此殊荣的华人；2012年获泛华统计协会杰出成就奖。

Abstract：

The notorious Black Death caused devastation in medieval Europe, wiping out almost half of her population. It was the black rat that was always believed to be responsible for the crime of spreading the deadly plague. However, recent scientific research conducted by a team of scientists from different disciplines and led by Professor Nils Christian Stenseth, formerly President of the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, has re-opened the investigation with the help of statisticians. Their findings in 2015 have taken the scientific world completely by surprise, so much so that the excitement has filtered into international news media such as the BBC. A leading newspaper in the United Kingdom even carried an editorial entitled "Apology to the black rat"! This talk will start with tracing the history of the Black Death, with reference to its epidemic route, human sufferings and social impact. It will then report recent findings, in layman terms, from the case book of UCOS, emphasizing the role of modern statistical forensics developed by Hong Kong born statisticians. It will conclude with a brief reference to some on-going investigation aiming at nailing the culprit once and for all, as well as to possible impact of climate change on future prevalence of the deadly epidemic world wide. The entire talk will be presented as a case of UCOS, in the spirit of the popular TV series 'New Tricks' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Tricks), and in a non-technical language.

时间：2019年10月23日（周三）下午15:00-16:00

地点：565net必赢客户端校本部教二楼913教室